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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  December 26, 2012 6:00pm-7:00pm EST

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final trade. josh? >> qualcomm. >> guy? >> netflix. >>
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i'm jim cramer and welcome to my world. you need to get in the game. firms are going to go out of business and he's nuts, they're nuts. they know nothing! i always like to say there's a bull market somewhere. "mad money." you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you a little money. >> i wouldn't cop out here every night to try to educate you if i didn't just think it was not just theoretically possible but actually feasible for the vast majority of people to succeed at managing their own money. so if that's the case, then why is investing so darn difficult? how many people struggle to make money in the stock market in how the heck can i believe it
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possible for you to beat the average, the big benchmarks when so many fund managers fail to do so? simple. you can do it but you have to do it the right way. one of the biggest obstacles to successful investing is a lack of clarity about just what investing is supposed to mean. i have seen countless people try to follow the conventional wisdom about money management, only to have their investments wiped out because the conventional wisdom is wrong. and the worst part is those people had no idea they were making a mistake. they actually thought they were being responsible. in other words, to borrow a phrase from "cool hand luke" -- >> what we've got here is failure to communicate. >> and i'm saying it boss. that's why tonight i want to demystify the concept of long-term investing. an ideas that been misinterpreted so often, in so many ways that it's become a n
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hindrance more than a help. here we're about long-term investing but there's a serious problem with this notion that goes like this. too often people let the long-term investing get in the way of investing. if you think long-term investing is about making boat loads of money, that's something i can teach you how to do. however, there's a darker side to this concept. all too often i've seen people invoke long-term investing as an excuse, an alibi, either for poor performance -- >> the house of pain! >> -- or for not paying attention to what they own. you want to hear you shouldn't worry about your losses or what you're losing in the present. sometimes absolutely true. but most of the time losing money month after month or year
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after year, that isn't a good recipe for making money over a long-term horizon. but long-term losses don't magically turn into long-term gains if you wait long enough. making money over the long goal is the only goal in this game butch it's also become the alibi for short-term losses. that kind of think will go only make you a worse invest oorks not a better one. before i can teach you how to invest for the long term, i have to disabuse you of all of the long-term al i buys that have been fed to you. at what points do you need to cover your ears e and tie yoursf to the mass so that the you won't listen to the conventional wisdom and end up steering your portfolio on to the rocks? first and most important, long-termnvesting is not the same as simply owning stocks for a long time. in other words, don't confuse being a good investor with the idiotic ideology buy and hold as
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i dub itted it buy and forget. this one bad idea has lost people more money than the last two financial crises combined. and just because the losses are unrealized, it doesn't make them into gainers or even potential gainers. losses are losses. realized or otherwise. and the notion of being in something for long term doesn't justify owning damaged goods. hey, damaged goods. the idea behind buy and hold is once you purchase your stocks, you just wait. me, i've never liked waiting and it also happens to to be a terrible strategy. that's why i'm saying you have to keep track of your investments. you have to do that ridiculously hard time consume egg homework. it's not in a hard and you have to listen to the quarterly calls
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and much of the research that used to be available only in those paying millions of commissions are now found on the web like yahoo! finance guide, cnbc.com, the street, they all got it. it's your money. please invest the time in it. the advocates of b and hold act like you have a license not to pay attention to the short term. it's like you have a birth right. i buy a stock and that allows me to not do homework. but you always have to pay attention. the moment you stop, that's when you stop losing money. you'll never be able to recover from those losses until you get engaged with your portfolio again. you're not stupid pup can get engaged and can you do this. sometimes companies go into what's known as secular decline and they never recover. in that case you just have to get out before the damage becomes too horrific. yes, polaroid, kodak, how about radio shack. that was a good one or supersal
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u. all the way down we were told long term you're fine or in other words being a long-term investor doesn't give you a license to be a lady and apathetic investors. has anyone who ond stocks through the misery and horror of the crash in 2008 and 2009 doesn't work. if there's one good thing the crash did, it disabused people of the idea could you buy and hold stocks to eternity. still, from the stories i read, the lessons are already being forgotten. can't have that happen, not on my "mad money" watch. in this brave enough world, many of the people who foolishly espouse this philosophy have tried to chang this tune. it doesn't mean write off the idea of long-term investing and
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that stocks can't make you money offer an extended period of time, though that's what many of you might think if you confuse lon-term investing with buy and homemade invest ent. stocks are still the best way to save money for your retirement, 529 for education. the kind of dividend payers i highlight to getting back to even that's good investing. you'll never get any of those things if you use long-term horizon as an excuse or al buy to hold them, something you won't know about if you biep and forget. here's the bottom line, long-term investing has gotten mixed up with a lot of bad ideas over the years. it doesn't mean it's not possible or worth trying. as long as you remember that say, hey, come on, i'm a long-term investor is not excuse for not doing the homework or
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following the rules. in anything, being in stocks for the long term requires more diligence and more patience than if you're in there for the short term so don't throw away all the lessons that i teach you. you're going to need them. to paraphrase that amateur investor and world renowned beauty gertrude stein, a loss is a loss is a loss, unrealized or otherwise and don't you forget it. >> bill in florida. >> caller: nice to talk to you. >> same. >> caller: i'm a retiree. time very concerned about the future. there's so much uncertainty, in taxes and inflation is a big concern. is there anything i can do at my age to protect myself? >> you're a person who does have to heed my 20% in gold bullion. i think the defense is right to have. i'm not going to tell you to buy
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bonds that will yield 2% think i think gold is going to be the best defense you have against the worries that your just outlined. let's go to anthony in virginia, please. anthony? >> caller: washington redskins booyah p rg3 nation stand up. >> dan snooid ser your owner. have you thought about that at all? >> caller: i have a quick question. >> sure. >> caller: when the market is overbought, should i go for the long-term? >> when it's overbought, my own rule is that plus five, if we're very overbought, hey, take a pass. another time will come. however, you can get started small and hope it comes back if you just can't resist. sam in ohio. sam. >> caller: hey, jim. big glass city booyah to you. >> loving it what's up? >> caller: i got a question. i've been looking at a couple
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utility stocks, going with preferred instead of the common shares. i wanted to get your opinion on -- >> no, come on, man, we want upside. a lot of these utilities should have to be fabulous growth stocks, particularly in a growth economy. let's just open them outride, we'll do just fine. of course i want you in in market for the long run. you can't beat those high streakly traders. give me a break. i want long-term investing but that does not mean buy and forget. for the long haul, do not throw out the rules. be sure that you're in the right merchandise and stay with cramer. >> doesn't miss a second of "mad money," follow@jim cramer, send jim an e-mail to
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madmoney@cnbc.com. miss something? head to madmoney .cnbc.com.
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let's talk the price is right. no, not the game show with bob barker. i'm talking about the stocks. if you want to make money from your stocks, it's critical that i buy them at the right price. that's true whether you're making short-term trade or purchasing something that if everything goes right you expect to hold for years and years. the price still matters. when you pay too of for a stack, you make it vastly more difficult to rack up the kind of gains you and i want, the kind you can't get enough of here on "man money." if you get the price wrong, you my not make anything at all. so how do you find the best price to pull the trigger given how important i think it is? when you're investing for the long haul, you have one huge
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van, a resource traders don't have the luxury of exploiting. i'm talking about time. as the longer term investor, you've got all the time in the world. when you want to buy a stock because you like the underlying company's prospects and when there are no near term cat lists that could drive the shares up any time soon, that's a recipe for being patient. you doesn't have to pay the price the market is giving you at that very moment, you can be patient and wait for the stock to come down to your price before you do this. of course you're never going to get an all clear signal telling you it's time to buy. so how are you supposed to know how long you should wait before you pull that trigger? simple. no, don't know. that's why you have to embrace the theory of ignorance. we don't know when a stock or market will give us the real
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time. most likely you'll get frustrated and then you'll dump the whole position a point or two down instead of uses the weakness to buy more. i studied thousands of trades in my time. in short, there is no right price but if you build up your position in small incelts, picking up more shares over weeks and months, then you can avoid paying the wrong price. and that's more important. that's why back at my old hedge fund you can follow along because i play with an open hand, not a lady gaga style poker face. i like to buy with what's known as wide scales on the wave down. you a then thor wall street jibberish. buying with wide scales on wait down describes the way to purchase a declining stock or stock that you're afraid is going it to go down in the stock market in general while it approaches the bottom. this is wait to get the entry point without getting discouraged. it's practically impossible to call a perfect bottom in an
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individual stock. i've rarely seen it. instead the smart move, the way the pros do it and the way you should do it is to buy incrementally on the way down and the big guy does this, believe me. it's your insurance against the potential bad judgment of thinking you know the stock is really done going down and you want to be all in because you're so darn sure that you're getting in on the ground floor. in this deal you have to assume there's a basement if not several subbasement. this helps you get ashd the difficulty of timing the markets exactly and it's there's a trick. it's something i've used overtime. say you want to by 400 shares of cat pilller, saying it it's trading at 90. if it trades down to 85, you're going to feel like a stooge. and worse, you'll have lost two grand practically blink of an eye. that's why we don't do that.
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>> start small, maybe you guy 100 shares at 90. then you wait. you buy the next hundred shares, if cat drops to say 81 and you put on the final hundred if the stock sinks below 80, you know, what you got a pretty good basis, basis matters. basis is price. the worst case scenario, cat pilller gas high are and you don't make as much money. and when you decide to sell it, you should unload it incrementally into strength. but, oh, boy, i sold it ul and then had it a big move. eliminate that move. >> now let's talk about a sales. if you're buying a company that's sinking a little lower every day, it could be good because you can buy it can strict or wide scales. for using strict scales, you would buy say a thousand shares of time the stock loses a point.
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each time the the essence of strict scales is you buy -- you purchase the same amount of stocks. using strict scales is responsible. that's why i like to use wide scales. the trick with wide scales is you buy larger and larger positions as the stock goes lower. i toous think of it as a pyramid of buying. if the stock lost a point, i'd put on a thousand share, another point 1,500. you can double down. it's about a pyramid instructor all used mir mid style. >> the great thing about wide sales is they live you with lots of room to maneuver. when the stott bomb the bom oms out, you're same thing about --
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you can accumulate a big position in that company's stock as it goes down. just make sure the story is still in tact. do the homework. if the underlying company is broken, the stock is never going to be a bargain no matter how low it falls, which is why you need to do homework. or you might need to abandon ship and find another one to travel. there is no sin in recognizing you made a mistake. >> be patient. keep your bat on your shoulder, wait for the right pitch, never buy all at once and be sure to buy with wider scales to get the possible overall basis. joe in massachusetts. joe. >> caller: hi, bool yeah jim, stop losses versus storp limits not only to minimize the lottes
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and ups and downs and you're going to try to get the right prices, you have to stay on top it have. i'm sorry. it's too important. you get a stock flash. you buy the stock at 80 and suddenly -- ilt too crazed. you have to protect yourself from this market. from any market that acts as badly and strangely. those old tricks out the win ind. keep an open behind. [ male announcer ] at scottrade,
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what starts with adding a friend... ♪ ...could end with adding a close friend. the lexus december to remember sales event is on. this is the pursuit of perfection. nobody is more passionate about the market than i am. nobody in this whole country! >> i wanted to thank you. you have saved my retirement. >> you are why i come out here and do this show. thank you so much. >> the stuff that you're doing for all of suss so important.
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thank you. >> my husband and i watch you every day. we count on your help for small investors like us. the only way to generate consistently strong returns year after year is by putting thought and effort into the process. it's like a personal trainer who promises that you can get in shape without doing any exercises, here's a pill. it doesn't work. yet i think a substantial majority of the public still believes this buy and hold nonsense is the legitimate way continue to vest. i read about it in the papers. no wonder stocks are so hated. people are convinced if they buy blue chip stocks and they wait long enough, those stocks will work their ways higher. it's been a lousy strategy, if
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it's a strategy at all, if you can even call it that. but in recent years, let's just say it's been really horrific. think about it. for the five years, the middle of 2007 and 2012, s&p have climbed by 9%. when you look at the benchmark's performance over the first decade of the new millennium, s&p was down 24%. though you only did lose 9% in those ten years when you factor in reinvested dividends, which is why i'm always telling you to own high yield dividend stocks. you were better off hiding money in a mattress. the strategy didn't work. let me give you some voice that you almost never hear. i want to talk about a forgiven term. some say it's a curse word. i want to talk about selling. selling. every stock you buy you should
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consider comes with an expiration date. again, radical. knowing when to sell those stocks is every bit as important as fwhog to buy the stocks. in fact, it's more critical because so many people make such a huge number of selling related mistakes by panicking and selling into weakness or by getting greedy and not selling at all. if you pick the right stocks, eventually you're going to have some win that's up and maybe up big. the trick at that point is not to go all in gordon gekio. greed is not good, man, it's dangerous, it's horrible. remember bulls make money, bears can make money but pigs, slaughtered. baked. when you got a serious winner, even though it still has many years of gains left in it, i want you to take some profit, period. no discussion. the on time you're going to let your winners ride -- you can let
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some of them ride, it's a mistake to let them all, you got to ring the register on some, a partial portion or possession otherwise your winners could become hunk winners. it's best to lock in profits while you still have them. you haven't really won until you've taken something off the table. hey, i'm making a lot of money. don't use that term making, unless you're profiting. why am i putting so much pressure on best performing stocks? you don't need me to tell you to sell your losers. when you own a stock and the company is reting you down, maybe management isn't executing, maybe the economy takes a turn for the worse. don't get sentimental, don't give them the benefit of the doubt, you got to sell. better than giving the company a second chance to burn you. lots of people are waiting to get back to even before selling.
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it's the worst amateur mistake. even then these people know their losers deserve to be sold. they want to sell. they're just waiting too long for an unrealistic price that's too high given the downturn with the actually company. selling your losers makes perfect sense. selling your winners, though, is counterintuitive for many people. you have to trim your winners. the first reason is diversification. say you owned a stock that's doubled and doubled and doubled. maybe you bought apple when it was trading around 200. it represented 15% of your portfolio. it's now a much larger piece of the pie. at that point you have too much exposure to even the single best stock and to whatever sector that stong is in. keeping all your eggs in one basket is down right dopey. that's why you need to trim your winners as they go higher, so they don't become too large a
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piece of your portfolio and get you in trouble. i'm not saying sell them all. if you're investing for the long term, you got time to do this and you do it gradually, pieces be, not all at once. as your winners go higher, you should sell off parts of your position. never sell all at once, just as you should never buy all at once and wait for moments of strength. you don't want your portfolio to become too heavily waited toward any one group. when you sell your best per forrers, it's the idea of playing with the house's money. when you own a stock that's had a huge multi-year run, you want to trim your position and all the money you have invested comes from profits you already made and not a penny from the original investment. that's the holy grail of investing because you can't
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lose! you're in a can't lose position. you can right it all. that's fine with me. that you can buy and pay for. younger investors can afford to let those gains simply cannot afford to risk turning big investing game over time. you got your whole working live. those of us in the older demographic, even if you're extremely well preserved, like myself, you've got to be trimming your winners more aggressively and ringing the register more readily. you can't just hold stocks forever pup have to remember to take profits, trim back so your portfolio stays diversified. and when you can iks take ul of the investment money out and
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play with the old guy's wintering. >> reporter:ivity just wondering should we -- as a way to market volatility? >> the only etf i'd recommend on the show is the gld. why is that? because i want to own the best. etf gives me the opportunity to own the wours with the best. i think what i've learned is to pick which ones are better and which ones are worse. i can teach you and you know you'll do it. >> daniel. >> a big baylor bears boo ya to you. >>. >> well, bailer was in a real imaginage ent trailer cafe. so specializing in it, i started looking more toward the price
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and the precash now flo to find a more valuable i.t. stock. >> i'll tell you, look, i happen to like the peg ratio but i look at myself when i'm analyzing a company that i want to be involved in. i look at operating cash flow. that's the one thing no one can really jigger. operating cash flow to me that is growing and you're a student in investing. it's a great way to measure the company's worth and its future. with apology to gourdan kek wet. the best you can be in is when all that's left is the profit that the market's given to you. stay with cramer! >> keel up with cramer all day long. follow@jim cramer on twitter and tweet your hash tags. bob, these projections... they're... optimistic.
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productivity up, costs down, time to market reduced... those are good things. upstairs, they will see fantasy. not fantasy... logistics. ups came in, analyzed our supply chain, inventory systems... ups? ups. not fantasy? who would have thought? i did. we did, bob. we did. got it.
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something that has a much larger bearing on you in the stock market as a whole. >> let cramer be your guide, your sounding board. >> i'm having a hard time with my favorite stock. >> i know you can beat these
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professionals. >> and your coach on your road to financial independence. "mad money" week nights on cnbc. if you want continue to vest for the long term, then like it or not that means planning for your retirement. in the long run, we all retire. it may not sound sexy but trying to put together enough money to become financially independent is really what we do every night here on "mad money." i'm sure you've heard the basic of retirement planning a billion times, you have to contribute to your individual retirement plan and contribute to your ira. instead of tell ug to mark money in your ira, i'm going to give you suggestions of what to buy. everyone tells to you take advantage of your 401(k) or ira. it's because these are tax-free
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vehicles. you pay no taxes on your profits so your investmentses compound for years. that's a sweet deal. and they do fluctuate overtime. they've gone up and down throughout my career. i have to give you something radical here. something almost nobody else will come out and say. most companies' 401(k) plan stink. they have high management fees and administrative costs that eat into your return and they offer you lousy choices for youn vesmentes. the the 401(k) business is sometimes a racket for managers who get these large fees. i'm very upset about this but help us to stop it. ideally you want a diversified portfolio of five to ten
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individual stocks. most 401(k) plans went let do you that. they let you choose from a very little ted menu with some stock funds and bond funds. find a low-cost index fund and put your money in there. you can do better by picking individual stocks and managing your portfolio on your own with your tone time frame. that makes the -- nevertheless, as much as some 401(k) plans stink, you should still contribute to your 401(k). these tax-favored vehicles are too good to pass up. plus many of your employers will match in your retirement. >> you should put enough money to max out the company match and if you have one and then stop.
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then the rest of your retirement. an ira gives you the freedom to invest your money whatever way you want. the maximum contribution was 5,000, and 6,000 if you were over 50. your best bet here is to own many of the high yielding stocks i talk about all the time on this show that provide the protection and generate income. a couple of wrinkles that make investing in ira difference from a remember count. >> m.o. prchltss are already tax advantaged. the distribution is considered a return of capital. but there's this arcane tax rule, if you buy too many of these stocks within a retirement account, you could give up the status and pay taxes you
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shouldn't have paid in a regular brokers catch. in general we do tend to have notes worth high yeeds. you have to be careful with the mortgage rates. that's the group you want but you got to consult your tax professional a mops and reestate investment trust. otherwise we go to the twal of a tilt. looking for high yields, the company better have enough earnings to kofrt payout. we like companies with a consistent record of raising their capital gains. the bottom line, a huge part of long-term invest ig is retirement investing. it's that's a terrific recipe
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for producing huge long-term rein returns. >> hi,em. how how do you coffman's call. do you rord evenen only questions so they can listen to the questions longs his response? >> i a lot of times i i let do you it. sometimes do i it in realtime, a lot of times i do it in the show. i do the transcript on the way home and the transcripts are readily available anywhere. you can stop and think approximately you can't do that when you're investing the line. inreinvest, build up overtime, avoid the taxes by making sure you make the contributions every year. stick with cramer.
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♪ i'm sexy and i know it >> here's a serious conundrum. how are you supposed to pick
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stocks for the long haul when sectors are constantly going in and out of style on the wall street fashion show? how do you buy something with an eye to racking up rallies when that's not how it is anymore. when you find them they are the holy grail of investing. and those don't go in and out of vogue, to stick with the fashion show analogy. all right, like i told you before, there's no such thing as a stock you can own forever. that's the essence of the kind of buy-and-hold thinking that's lost so many people such huge sums of money over the years. but some winners are more lasting than others and there's a certain type of stock that can produce incredible multi-year gains and they can be owned for much longer than what i regard as ordinary stocks. i'm talking about what's known as secular growth stocks, that's a rare breed that you should always be on the lookout for. these companies are driven by
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powerful long-term stories. most companies need a healthy economy in toward thrive. we call that cyclical growth. hough do you spot a general u lar secular growth name? i like to look for bik picture themes. we have a company at play on a much broader trend. take the move toward healthy eating and embrace of organic foods. this has made whole foods into a powerhouse stock and destroyed the regular supermarkets and the same for bain slelial. however, we'll these stories can last for years, even secular growth stocks have a limited shelf life. these are fewer and fewer plays
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that can consistently make you money. last longer but never just last forever. years ago back when the smartphone was a relatively new invention, i started talking about the power of the mobile internet tsunami. for a while there was a ton of money to be made over the smartphone food chain. but it turned out to be not a license to buy even the sector's weakest players, which gradually fell by the wave side. the rising tied does not lift all ships. most of the time can you hang on for years and years but if you find a secular growth story, driven by the same theme pushing up a whole foods or apple, there's nothing wrong with owning these super hype skault stocks for as long as they stay in tact because they're not going to be part of the wall street falgs show. but just like life, even secular
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ad stocks don't last forever. only homework with keep you from crashing along with it. larry in tennessee, larry. >> caller: is this james j. kramer? >> yes, it is. how are you? >> caller: great, man. i think i've read everything you wrote since 1998. i wanted to call and thank you for putting my daughter through college and teaching us home gamers how to survive in this stuff. >> you're terrific. thank you. >> caller: i have a question. tax season is coming up and you teach us to trade around the core positions up and down. i wonder if you have any advice for us coping with wash sales. >> wash sales a problem. what i'm going to do on that question is i am going to tell people because i can't give individual tax advice, you got to speak to your tax consultant about when you can take these sales and then go pack and buy.
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you're right, there can be a wash stock problem. no stock is forever. they come in or out of fashion all the time but some do last longer than others. they have a longer shelf life and that's ultimately what we're trying to find. [ male announcer ] this december, remember -- you can stay in and share something... or you can get out there and actually share something. ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is on.
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this is the pursuit of perfection.
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all night i've been trying to walk you through what it does and doesn't mean to be a good long-term investor. while we're on the subject, i got one last play i need to make. there's nothing inherently virtuous on long-term investing. don't get too hung up on the nomenclature. i'm not making any judgments, all right? we're here to make money. i happen to think picking long-term winners is more lucrative than gain short-term stock moves and it's easier for
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you at home to duplication so i like it. if you're finding your portfolio does better more actively, hey, more power to you. i'm not going to judge you, though never forget, do you not have the horses to compete with the high frequency band it's or hedge funds with multi-million dollar research budgets to support their trading investments. at the end of the dash the banks don't care whether your money was made from long-term investments or or not. the tell, presuming you can find a human isn't going to say can i accept this deposits but not that one, that's dirty money from trading, take it elsewhere. money's money. the only money worth making is the kind that came from stayed boring investing. the only difference in trading and investing has to do with your time who arizing. investments are positions you plan on being in for longer, a
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year, year and a half. day trading is totally different. i can't encourage day trading because i think you'll lose money. you don't have to choose between passively sitting on your oldings as an investor, even when you feel like you shed really be taking action. look, you can do what you need to do to save money. find your own happy medium, no matter which path you choose or both, stay on top of things and you'll do better than just about any hedge fund can you have ot your disposal. stick with cramer. >> on the next "american greed", the largest identity theft in u.s. history. operation get rich or die
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trying. customer erin swenson bought from us online today. so, i'm happy. sales go up... i'm happy. it went out today... i'm happy. what if she's not home? (together) she won't be happy. use ups! she can get a text alert, reroute... even reschedule her package. it's ups my choice. are you happy? i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. i'm happy. happy. happy. happy. happy. (together) happy. i love logistics. we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying...
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[i'm with scottrad.

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